Pantnagar Journal of Research

Abstract

Agricultural trade plays an important role in India’s economic development by contributing to foreign exchange earnings, employment generation, and food security. In recent years, global conflicts such as the Afghanistan War, Iraq War, Arab Spring, Global Financial Crisis, COVID19 pandemic, and Russia–Ukraine conflict have significantly influenced international trade flows, commodity prices, transportation costs, and supply chain stability. The study looks at how India’s agricultural commerce was affected by major international conflicts between 2001-2024.Secondary data is the basis of the analysis whereas multiple linear regression, trend analysis and descriptive statistics were used to evaluate the connection between India’s agricultural exports and geopolitical tensions. The results show that during the study period, India’s agricultural trade significantly increased. Agricultural exports increased from USD 6.3 billion in 2001 to over USD 52 billion in 2024, while imports also recorded steady growth. To sustain long-term growth and reduce vulnerability to future global shocks, policymakers, should prioritize fertilizer security, diversify export markets, strengthen logistics and supply chain infrastructure, reduce dependence on critical agricultural imports and enhance trade intelligence and risk management systems. These measures will improve the stability and competitiveness of India’s agricultural trade in an increasingly uncertain global environment.